Most responses to the May Revise have appropriately focused on the revenue effects coming from the state’s extreme reliance on the tax returns of a relatively small number of high-income taxpayers.

Both the nonfarm job and employment numbers showed positive gains in April, but at relatively modest levels. Nonfarm jobs rose by 5,200, and were not strong enough to even offset the 10,100 downward adjustment to the March gains.

Last month, the governor announced that the state’s energy policies had set new records whereby clean energy had exceeded grid demand at some point during 40 of the last 48 days. Left unsaid, however, is that clean energy is not always produced when it is needed.

Total trade through the state’s ports was up $2.2 billion (3.3%) in March compared to the same period a year ago, generating yet another rise (on a 12-month moving basis) in the state’s overall share of US trade to 15.75% compared to the low of 15.32% last August.

As discussed in our preliminary report last week, the March data again showed California with the highest unemployment rate among the states and DC and, at 5.3%, the highest in California since December 2021. In contrast, the current Department of Finance forecasts underlying the budget revenue and spending projections expected unemployment to be only 4.9% in the first quarter of 2024.